The growth of exhaustion

Management plans, policies and decisions must fit the given stage of societal evolution. A good policy (e.g.) at a time of innovation in a Kondratiev or hegemonic cycle/structure may be a counterintuitively bad and dangerous policy at a time of saturation and exhaustion of ideas. The nature of the Knodratiev and hegemonic cycles/structures is further examined from the perspective of the life cycle of collective intelligence and knowledge. Effective intelligence and knowledge are themselves considered to be evolving macrostructures; a view much different from both the Shannon-Weaver and computer-science perspectives, but a view much more consonant with modern dynamic systems theory. Some untoward experiences with the use of models in energy management durng the falling leg of Kondratiev Number Four are noted. the origin and exhaustion of contemporary problemsolving approaches are discussed from a theoretical perspective and some thoughts on a possible fifth Kondratiev recovery given. In conclusion, the main theory is synopsized and some brief recommendations made for further thinking about operational research modeling.