Forecasting with scenarios

Forecasting with scenarios

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Article ID: iaor199722
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 68
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 291
End Page Number: 303
Publication Date: Aug 1993
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research
Authors: ,
Keywords: planning
Abstract:

It is often argued that scenario development is diffeent from forecasting, but the analysis presented here reevaluates how it is converging with contemporary forecasting practice. The most common aspects of scenario analysis are discussed, with an emphasis on their support for strategic modelling and in the light of relevant research on human cognition and judgemental forecasting. The paper also offers some practical guidelines and a more integrative perspective on using scenarios to support strategic planning.

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