Comparison of real-time reservoir-operation techniques

This study presents different operation techniques for real-time reservoir regulation on the basis of two hydrologic models and two optimization methods: the first-order autoregressive (AR) model, the GR3 conceptual rainfall-runoff model, the stretched-thread (ST) method, and dynamic programming (DP). With these elements, three reservoir-operation techniques can be designed by combining one hydrological model with one optimization method, namely GR3 with ST, AR with DP (stochastic DP). The last possibility (GR3+DP) is not computable. From the efficiency viewpoint, the techniques for a daily reservoir regulation are compared using a 3-yr recorded data series and then a generated 100-yr data series. the comparisons show surprisingly a favorable efficiency for the technique based on the ST method in the Bar-sur-Seine reservoir upstream from Paris. The study confirms the value of simple optimization methods such as ST and the applicability of scenarios methods in real-time revervoir operation. It emphasizes that the basis of a good reservoir-operation system is to view forecast and decision making as a whole unit.