The anatomy of a computer application innovation: Computer Mediated Communications (CMC)

It is quite easy to observe that computers have had a major impact on our society and to predict that this trend will continue. While it is possible to come up with specific predictions on various aspects of the technology such as expected performance of new hardware announcements, we have a very spotty record about anything dealing with the interaction of computer and information systems with individuals, groups, organizations, and society. The problem is not that someone has failed to predict specific impacts that will occur, but that there are so many predictions that some will be right only by random chance. Most predictions are made by individuals and organizations within the computer science discipline and the computer industry. For each correct prediction, one can usually find a number of equally impressive predictions that were wrong. In fact, it might be said that we have a great deal of difficulty determining what is currently going on, let alone in the future. For example, the debate in the literature as to whether computer systems are a net creator or destroyer of jobs is still an open issue. It is doubtful that we will ever be able to resolve that issue. People within industry often remark that the companies who succeed do not do so because of accurate forecasting or planning, but because they make the fewest mistakes. Perhaps the first generalization to offer the reader is that predictions made about the computer field by those in the field are the most suspect of all of the predictions.