Policy reasoning for forecasting

Many years of work in policy planning, both theoretic and applied, have led the author to the conclusion that presently available forecasting, planning, policy analysis and related disciplines, approaches, methods and methodologies include many valuable elements, but as a whole are very inadequate and often misleading. Indeed, when relied upon to face real predicaments in a turbulent environment, they may often be more counterproductive, if taken seriously and relied upon, than enlightening. To elaborate this conclusion in a way which hopefully may be useful for upgrading forecasting and prediction endeavors, this paper presents concisely 22 advanced policy reasoning ideas-in a form designed to serve as yardsticks for evaluating the present state of forecasting and policy planning and as a guide towards their improvement. The ideas are presented on the level of national policy reasoning, but can be applied with suitable changes to various levels of decision-making, public as well as private.