Gaining a sense of direction in futures work

Futures have always existed, from the Book of Genesis and Cassandra’s warnings, to Edward Bellamy’s ‘Looking Backwards’ [the centenary of which we have just celebrated], and the end of the twentieth century, which the media will surely turn into a hotbed of ‘predictions’! Within this range from poetry and religious belief to hard-nosed military forecasting of the direction of technological change in a head-to-head power confrontation, a great deal has been accomplished to propose and clarify different methodologies and to begin to define their strengths and weaknesses. But the main finding to emerge from the forecasters’ and futurists’ point of view is the difficulty to get decision makers and their organizations to look beyond ‘the ends of their noses’; the chief reasons for this reluctance remain the human desire not to risk one’s position unnecessarily and our ability and determination to discount the future. Thus futurists and forecasters have had to learn that the key to the acceptance of their work lies in dealing with its human, organizational, social, and cultural aspects. Notwithstanding this, the current challenges of continuing technical, political, and social developments in almost every walk of life must be met.