The future of technological forecasting

Better methods of forecasting and planning for the future are needed now as never before. At all levels of government we in the United States badly need-and currently lack-clearer and more quantitative answers to a number of generic questions pertaining to technological progress. Equally, the managers of private sector firms, large and small, also often face the need to make decisions for which they lack the necessary knowledge. One of the most critical decisions faced by managers, and more often muffed than made well, is the timing of a switch from an old established technology to a newer and more promising, but still risky, one.