Future’s futures

While mankind’s fascination with the future dates back as far as history, the study of the future as a serious intellectual enterprise began only just about two decades ago. At this time the first steps were taken toward augmenting the mere extrapolation of hard data about the past with ‘soft data’ about the future derived from the systematic use of expert judgment. The mid- and late 1960s saw (1) the publication of de Jouvenel’s l’Art de la Conjecture and of the first major application of the Delphi technique at the Rand Corporation to long-range forecasting, (2) the start of the Institute for the Future and, under Congressional auspices, of the Office of Technology Assessment, as well as (3) the initial publication of three major journals devoted to futures research (Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Futures, and The Futurist). Along with these developments, or soon after, we saw the creation all over the world of numerous groups and firms that concerned themselves with the exploration of, and planning for, the future. Thus began what has at times been referred to as ‘the futures movement.’