A flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications

A flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications

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Article ID: iaor1989377
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 4
Start Page Number: 177
End Page Number: 192
Publication Date: May 1988
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Abstract:

In this paper, the authors develop a four-parameter generalization of the logistic growth curve, the flexible-logistic (FLOG) model. It is shown that the FLOG model is sufficiently general to locate its point of inflection anywhere between its upper and lower bounds; it can offer wide variation in its degree of symmetry for a given point of inflection. Although additional parameters always produce a better within-sample fit, the specific flexibility introduced by the FLOG class of models emphasises the forecast properties by controlling the saturation level and the approach to that level. The model is subjected to a number of theoretical and empirical tests and is applied to three sets of telecommunications data.

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