Uncertainty, experience and the phase theorem

This paper compares the information obtained from involvement in the planning of research and development projects with that obtained from an experiment set up to test the process of decision making with particular reference to the phase theorem. Findings are that there is a weak support for the theorem but that the extent to which the phase theorem is used is dependent on the experience of the decision maker and of the complexity of the problem. Under certain circumstances the decision makers tend to substitute the activity orientation for a component orientation. An explanation for this is provided through the framework of the uncertainty map. Finally implications are drawn for management development in both educational establishments and R&D organizations.