Decision analysis with indeterminate or incoherent probabilities

This paper presents a new method of modeling indeterminate and incoherent probability judgements in decision analysis problems. The decision maker’s degree of beliefs in the occurrence of an event is represented by a unimodal (in fact, concave) function on the unit interval, whose parameters are elicited in terms of lower and upper probabilities with attached confidence weights. This is shown to provide a unified framework for performing sensitivity analysis, reconciling incoherence, and combining expert judgments.