International sanctions and anti-apartheid politics in South Africa: An empirical investigation

International sanctions are often imposed in response to interest group pressures in the sanctioning countries. Lobbying by those interest groups is likely to increase when political disturbances in the target country make individuals in the sanctioning countries more aware of the target regime’s objectionable behaviour. But sanctions also can help to induce political changes in the target nation if they increase the ability of opposition interest groups there to exert influence. Using time-series data on anti-apartheid sanctions against South Africa, it is shown that those sanctions were endogenous. The intensity of sanctions increased as a result of increases in black political unrest in South Africa. At the same time, increases in sanctions had an immediate positive effect on the level of political dissent as measured by black strike activity. In the longer-run, however, sanctions lowered black workers’ incomes and caused a decline in black strikes.