Analysis of air operations during Desert Shield and Desert Storm

This article discusses the role played by HQ USAF operations research analysts assigned to the Director of Operations planning staff at HQ CENTAF Forward (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia) during operations DESERT SHIELD and DESERT STORM. The authors describe the development of a prototype system to demonstrate the benefits of in-theater operations analysis, and the tasks associated with developing and maintaining a model of the Iraqi integrated air defense system. The model required the operations analysts to interact closely with theater-level and wing-level mission planners to accurately present the unfolding operations plan. The authors describe the techniques and tools used to play out the initial stages of the allied air campaign. They also address (i) the estimation of attrition of Iraqi air defense units and Allied Air, (ii) the analysis of airspace congestion during air refueling operations, and (iii) how a simulation model (EADSIM) was used to help pinpoint the cause of Allied air losses. The authors conclude with a discussion of the impact of analysis on military decision makers at multiple levels of command, based on personal experience.