Forecasting political risk for international operations

Political risk forecasting has attracted considerable business and academic attention in the last decade. This paper starts with a review of the major findings and approaches to the assessment of political risk in foreign investment situations, particularly in terms of the specification of relevant causal relationships between the sources of risk and corporate contingencies. Next, a comprehensive model of general applicability incorporating these findings is outlined. Finally, the authors conclude with a few comments on the dynamics of political change and corporate strategy that make any such model subject to constant review and evaluation.