Planning China’s coal and electricity delivery system

Although China produces 1.1 billion tons of coal per year, demand is projected at almost 1.6 billion tons in 2000. Transport bottlenecks, coal and electricity shortages, and worsening air pollution threaten the country’s double-digit GNP growth. To address these problems, the World Bank and the Chinese State Planning Commission developed a decision support system consisting of a mixed-integer program, a geographic information system, and related submodels. The Coal Transport Study model covers coal mining, washing, and transport; thermal, hydro, and nuclear power generation; electricity transmission; pollution levels; and scrubbers; which together will require at least $240 billion in new investments over a 15-year horizon. The analysis results influenced several government policies concerning GNP growth, coal imports, and various capital investments, with a potential benefit of about $6.4 billion from 1991 to 2005.