A stochastic model for forecast consumption in master scheduling

This paper describes a stochastic model for the reduction of the initial forecast in the Master Schedule (MS) of an MRP system during progress of time by the acceptance of customer orders. Results are given for the expectation and variance of the number of yet unknown deliveries as a function of futurity within the planning horizon. The expectation will be a measure for the forecast. The result for the variance is a measure for the forecasting error and may act as a basis for the amount of safety stock or available to promise, to project in the MS.