Forecasting the number of competing products in high-technology markets

Firm decisions to enter a high-tech product category or to extend an existing product line depend in part on the intensity of competition anticipated in the marketplace at the planned introduction time. The authors develop and empirically test three models that may be used to forecast the number of products competing in a developing marketplace as a function of time. By helping managers to predict the degree of competition they will face at alternative introduction times, these models may be used, in conjunction with demand growth models, to assess efforts to commercialize new products.