Study of vehicle replacement scenarios in the Portuguese market

This particle presents a vehicle replacement study based upon operating and replacement cost data from the Portuguese and the French car markets. The French market is taken to be indicative of what is likely to happen in Portugal in the foreseeable future. The analysis was based both on deterministic and stochastic models and the results derived from these models are compared and used to show the effect of several factors on the replacement policies, namely: (i) the characteristics of different models within the same range, (ii) the car range, and (iii) the structure of operating and replacement costs, which is a function of the stage of development of each car market. A global perspective of how replacement policies are likely to evolve in the Portuguese market is presented on the basis of the results derived in this study, in particular those mentioned in (iii).