An indicator of combat success

Assessing the effects of changes in weapons systems or battle tactics is difficult because of the variations in battles and the resulting instability of measures of combat effectiveness. Even under the relatively stable conditions of designed combat exercise, traditional measures may fail to reflect important battle events and dynamics. This variation in results makes the design, conduct, and evaluation of combat experiments, combat simulations, and combat training exercises a challenging endeavor, indeed. The authors develop and examine a combat measure of effectiveness, based on Lanchester models, which they call the battle trace. The battle trace is a measure of ongoing battle results, measured as a function of time into the battle. The authors describe how such measures might contribute to assessing effects of changing certain battle parameters. They suggest applications of these ideas to developing combat simulations and to enhancing combat training exercises.