Forecasting replacement demand by occupation and education

Replacement demand is an important component of the future demand for manpower often neglected in manpower demand forecasts. In particular, for characterizing the prospects for newcomers on the labour market, the manpower requirements method is not adequate as it merely focuses on employment mutations. This study builds a theoretical framework to measure the historical replacement demand distinguished by occupation and education. This framework is extended so that in addition to employment growth forecasts, forecasts can also be made of the future replacement demand for about 80 occupational classes and 50 educational groups, as the authors have done for The Netherlands for the period 1989-1994.