On post-evaluation analysis: Candle-lighting and surrogate models

Gleaning information from a model to guide the design of new and better options is an important, underemphasized facet of post-evaluation analysis. The authors call this facet candle-lighting analysis. They structure this analysis as a series of questions which are incorporated into a DSS that uses standard mathematical and artificial intelligence techniques. Creating new options typically requires action by an organization. The DSS stores models of these actions, their cost and benefits, and information about the source and accuracy of parameters. The authors applied candle-lighting analysis to a performance evaluation model developed with and for the U.S. Coast Guard that is part of a prototype DSS.