Empirical analysis of bus transit on-time performance

This paper presents an empirical assessment of factors affecting on-time performance in Portland, Oregon’s fixed route bus system. A multinomial logit model relating early, late and on-time bus arrivals to route, schedule, driver and operating characteristics is developed and estimated. The model results show that the probability of on-time failures increases during PM peak periods, with longer headways and higher levels of passenger activity, and as buses progress further along their routes. Part-time drivers are also more likely to fall behind schedule. With few exceptions, schedule changes and operations-control actions can mitigate these effects.