Article ID: | iaor19932301 |
Country: | United States |
Volume: | 23 |
Issue: | 1 |
Start Page Number: | 44 |
End Page Number: | 58 |
Publication Date: | Jan 1993 |
Journal: | Interfaces |
Authors: | Burnett W.M., Monetta D. J., Silverman B.G. |
Keywords: | decision: applications, energy |
In the 1970s, natural gas was thought to be ‘a fuel with no future’. To change this, the industry formed a research and development (R&D) arm called the Gas Research Institute (GRI). Since 1978, the GRI R&D program has resulted in 132 commercial products, processes, or techniques that have helped turn natural gas into ‘the fuel of the future’. In doing this, GRI achieved a project success rate of 30 percent-or over twice the U.S. industry-wide average-and a benefit-to-cost ratio of at least seven to one. This success is widely credited to the use of the project appraisal methodology (PAM), a multiattribute, decision analytic scoring function and group advisory process. PAM can be credited with half of the benefits achieved. These benefits are at least $11 billion and as high as $132 billion.